Ve čtvrtek 17. prosince zasedala Bankovní rada České národní banky a na programu dne byly úrokové sazby. Ty byly naposledy změněny v reakci na první vlnu pandemie koronaviru v dubnu tohoto roku, kdy je ČNB výrazně snížila s cílem pomoci české ekonomice. A přestože byl jejich opětovný nárůst některými odborníky již očekáván, bankovní rada je jednomyslně ponechala na stávající úrovni.
Dvoutýdenní repo sazba tak nadále zůstává na 0,25 %, diskontní sazba na 0,5 % a lombardní sazba na 1 %. Toto rozhodnutí se dle tiskové zprávy ČNB opírá o listopadovou makroekonomickou prognózu a o vyhodnocení informací získaných od jejího zpracování. Ukazuje se, že s prognózou je konzistentní jak stabilita tržních úrokových sazeb, tak jejich postupný nárůst v dalším období. Dle bankovní rady jsou rizika a nejistoty prognózy v kontextu probíhající druhé vlny pandemie stále velmi výrazné.
„Nelze jednoznačně říct, že by realita doslova kopírovala prognózy České národní banky z listopadu tohoto roku. Celkový vývoj se od ní ale nijak výrazně neodchyluje. Je však pravda, že například vývoj tuzemské ekonomiky byl v létě o poznání pozitivnější, než se očekávalo. Mohlo za to hlavně uvolnění protiepidemických opatřeních, které ekonomice dalo šanci chytit druhý dech. Ten byl sice krátký, ale pomohl. O sedm procent tak například vzrostl hrubý domácí produkt a tím se zmírnil jeho meziroční propad,“ říká Jaroslav Brychta, hlavní analytik brokerské společnosti XTB.
Překvapivé poté bylo i zastavení růstu spotřeby vlády a rychlý propad soukromých investic, což dle Brychty vypovídá o možném scénáři na následující rok. „Přestože se nyní ČNB ke zvyšování úrokových sazeb nepřiklonila, je to na pořadu dne, a to již v první polovině příštího roku. Zmiňovaný propad soukromých investic ovšem naznačuje investiční škrty v podnikatelském sektoru, které nemusí mít krátkodobý charakter. Ostatně dle zmiňované tiskové zprávy se výkon českého hospodářství nedostane na úroveň před pandemií ani na konci roku 2022.“
Očekávaný vývoj tak nadále nahrává novým obchodníkům, kteří zvažují vstup do světa investic. „Na vzestupu jsou a dále budou společnosti podnikající v online prostředí, v elektronických platbách nebo provozovatelé streamovacích služeb. Naopak se nemusí úplně vyplatit investice do společností z postižených oborů, což je hlavně cestovní ruch, ve kterém je dle údajů OSN globálně ohroženo 120 milionů pracovních míst. Co se investic podrobněji týče, doporučuji zhlédnout záznam z listopadové online investiční konference, který jsme zpřístupnili zdarma. Na konferenci jsme se zabývali investičními výhledy a trendy pro příští rok a je možné se z ní dozvědět i konkrétní strategie investorů pro rok 2021,“ uzavírá Jaroslav Brychta za XTB.
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